GE2024 – Electoral Reform Society – ERS https://electoral-reform.org.uk The Electoral Reform Society is an independent organisation leading the campaign for your democratic rights. Thu, 25 Sep 2025 11:35:52 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cropped-favicon-124x124.png GE2024 – Electoral Reform Society – ERS https://electoral-reform.org.uk 32 32 How many votes did Labour get in 2024? https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-many-votes-did-labour-get-in-2024/ Thu, 25 Sep 2025 11:35:20 +0000 https://electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8732

On election night in 2024, the headlines celebrated a Labour landslide. Crowds cheered, pundits predicted a bold new direction, and the idea of a strong majority government dominated the conversation. But as the confetti settled, a quieter question lingered: how many people actually voted for Labour, and what does that mean for the stability of the government?

Labour secured 9,708,816 votes, just 33.7 % of the national vote. Yet it ended up with 411 out of 650 seats in the House of Commons, roughly 63 % of the seats. That sharp gap between vote share and seat share is at the heart of a problem that First Past the Post (FPTP) consistently produces: a government can look commanding in numbers, while its actual support among voters is far more limited.

Explore the results on our 2024 election dashboard

How a third of the vote became two-thirds of the seats

First Past the Post rewards efficiency in winning constituencies rather than overall support. Labour’s votes were concentrated in areas where they could turn narrow victories into seats, while support for other parties was often spread too thinly to translate into representation. Winning by a single vote in a constituency counts just as much as winning by thousands.

The result is a system that can exaggerate majorities. Labour’s 33.7 % vote share became a commanding parliamentary majority, even though two-thirds of the electorate did not vote for the party. That mismatch has consequences that go far beyond numbers.

A shaky foundation for government

A majority in Parliament may look impressive on paper, but it can conceal a fragile reality. The government’s mandate rests on a relatively small proportion of voters. Like a castle built on sand, the structure appears solid but is prone to instability.

Every policy decision risks testing the limits of that narrow support. Small shifts in voter opinion, by-election losses, or political missteps could quickly erode the majority. The underlying fragility helps explain why this government, despite its “landslide,” faces ongoing uncertainty and pressure.

Building a fairer and more stable system

Keeping a system that ensures parliament doesn’t reflect the country’s wishes is a political choice. And, it’s not like we need to look that far for the solution, as none of the devolved legislatures in Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland have this issue. They have all used proportional representation for decades.

Proportional representation would align seats in Parliament more closely with the votes cast. A party winning 33.7 % of the vote would receive roughly the same share of seats, giving every voter a voice and ensuring majorities reflect genuine support.

Proportional systems prevent artificial majorities built on quirks of geography and vote distribution. What should matter is how popular a party is, not where those voters live.

Labour’s 2024 victory may look impressive in the seat count, but beneath that façade lies a fragile foundation. If democracy is to be both representative and stable, it is time for proportional representation in the UK – a system that builds on rock, not sand.

Add your name to our call for fair, proportional elections in Westminster

Add your name now

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A System Out of Step – New report on the 2024 General Election https://electoral-reform.org.uk/a-system-out-of-step-the-2024-general-election/ Tue, 10 Dec 2024 00:01:49 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8381

Today we have published our in-depth report on the 2024 General Election, A System Out of Step.

The General Election in 2024 was not only the most disproportional election in British electoral history, but one of the most disproportional seen anywhere in the world. Underneath this headline lies a story – one of a volatile electorate, fragmenting party system and an electoral system that cannot keep up. The result for voters, and for parties, is a system out of step.

Read the report A System out of Step: The 2024 General Election

This was an election of records broken for all the wrong reasons. Alongside record levels of disproportionality, record lows in trust and engagement delivered a significant drop in turnout.

Those who did turn out delivered a message – the party system and certainties of old are changing.

The 2024 General Election was the first in which four parties gained over ten percent of votes and five parties over five percent of votes. Labour and the Conservatives recorded their lowest combined vote share (57.4%) in the era of universal suffrage, with other parties and independents taking over 40 percent of the votes.

This was an election of multi-party voting, breaking away from the Brexit-driven two-party squeeze seen in the previous two elections, but not translating into a multi-party parliament. The votes piled up for the Reform Party and the Green Party, who received over 4 million votes and nearly 2 million votes respectively, but these did not translate to their fair share of seats, Reform gaining five seats, and the Greens only four.

Volatility also reached a new high. Voters continued to shop around, switch parties and decide later who to vote for. The electoral shocks of the last decade continue to influence our politics, forging new political alignments, and uncertainty for parties and voters alike.

Westminster’s voting system is not designed for this electoral landscape and, as a consequence, delivers results that are not only highly disproportional but uncomfortably fragile. Small changes in vote share over the last decade have resulted in vastly different results.

Voters also continued to try to make the electoral system work for them by voting tactically – nearly a third, again at this election, said they would be opting for a party that wasn’t their first choice in order to keep out another.

But it is not just the voters who were remarkable at this election. With turnout down to 59.9%, only narrowly missing the previous low experienced in 2001 (59.4%), non-voters also spoke loudly. At 40.1%, the non-vote was higher than any party’s vote share.

We have delved underneath the headline election outcomes to reveal the full picture from this election and we have analysed what the election might have looked like under a range of different electoral systems.

As UK General Elections continue to break records for all the wrong reasons, it is time to consider how things could be better.

Add your name to our call to make seats in parliament match how we vote

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How big donors fund our political parties https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-big-donors-fund-our-political-parties/ Tue, 13 Aug 2024 14:25:43 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8051

In July 2024, at a time when candidates were still fighting for their seats, we reported on donations made to political parties during the first 3 weeks of campaigning for the 2024 general election. Now Labour have secured their victory, the full figures for the ‘prepoll period’ – spanning from May 30th to election day – have been released by the Electoral Commission.

Labour received by far the most donations

A look at the final weeks reveals that the Labour Party (combined with the Co-operative Party) racked up £9.8 million worth of donations by election day, more than five times that reported by the Conservative Party over the same time frame. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK continued to tie virtually neck and neck with final sums of £1.9 million, £1.7 million, and £1.6 million, respectively. The total sums donated to other parties were far lower; next in line were the Green Party, accepting £160,000, and the Scottish National Party with £127,998. *

Why true donation figures are likely to be higher

These numbers by themselves however don’t paint a full picture of party finances. For one, sometimes parties are late in submitting donations accepted during the prepoll period. After the 2019 general election, the Electoral Commission opened multiple investigations into incomplete or late submissions.

Secondly, only donations large enough to reach a certain threshold need to be officially reported. In 2023, this amount was raised from £7,500 to £11,180, possibly leaving a bigger proportion of donations undisclosed. Tallying all parties’ donations together, the total amount reported during the 2024 prepoll period was £15.2 million. It is noteworthy that this number is half the £30.7 million reported during the 2019 general election campaign.

However, the year of 2019 saw an unprecedented surge in reported donations, with the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party (now Reform UK) all receiving record breaking amounts for their parties since donations first began being documented in 2001.

The landscape of UK party financing has been evolving

What this highlights is that donations made during any one campaign offer only a snapshot into wider trends – trends that are most revealing when looked at over a number of years.

For example, although accepting far less than Labour during the immediate build up to the election, the Conservative Party had been boosted by huge sums earlier in the year. In the first quarter of 2024, the Conservatives received £8.8 million, Labour £7.4 million, the Liberal Democrats £2.5 million, and Reform UK £25,000.

In fact, the increase of money flowing into Labour is a stark change of trend for UK party financing. Between 2001 and 2019, the UK saw a rapid growth rate in the total donations made to political parties overall, even when accounting for factors such as inflation. What’s more is that this growth has been disproportionately driven by an increase in donations from wealthy individuals, or “mega-donors”.

Over the years the Conservatives have benefited the most from this growth while Labour saw a decline in donations, particularly those of the mega-donor type, between 2010 and 2019.

This makes it even more striking that during their latest campaign Labour took in £6.7 million from mega-donors, making up 68.5% of their total prepoll tally. This amount is about 42 times more than the £159,442 they took in from the same type of donors during their 2019 campaign. The tide has turned with an influx of wealthy individuals now backing Labour, some of whom previously donated to the Conservatives.

More donations reported from Unincorporated Associations in this election

The £1.9 million in donations received by the Conservatives during the 2024 campaign included 52.3% from wealthy individuals, along with 26.5% from companies.

More remarkable perhaps was how a remaining 20.0% came from Unincorporated Associations (UAs). Although a permissible donor type, UAs have, for good reason, attracted suspicion about their involvement in the funding of political parties. Transparency is the norm for most UK donors. Yet, with less disclosure requirements, the origins of money coming from UAs is far murkier.

In 2019, UAs donated £98,500 during the build-up to the December election, with the Conservatives taking £88,000 and Labour the remaining £10,500. Or, at least, these are the donations we can know of, in that they totalled above the £7,500 reporting threshold. This time around – with the higher threshold in place – the Conservatives were the only party to report donations from UAs, accepting a total of £373,500; about 4 times the 2019 amount.

With their opaque internal finances, it’s becoming ever more vital we close the UA loophole in our regulation.

Question marks remain over the influence of big donors

Election period or not, the more money a party receives over time, the more they have available to spend on hiring staff, policy development, advertising, hosting events for members, and so on. More money does not, however, guarantee electoral success. For example, in the run-up to the 2019 general election Lord David Sainsbury made the single biggest political donation in history, giving £8m to the Liberal Democrats. However, the party went on to make a net loss of seats at the general election.

Still, it appears that over the years the landscape of UK party financing has been shifting. As many big donors redirect their funds to Labour, questions persist over the influence and motives of some wealthy individuals, along with other non-elected entities and their large investments into our political parties.

*Numbers calculated by the ERS using data made available through the Electoral Commission donations search tool.

Support the work of the Electoral Reform Society

Members support our work in Parliament, in the press and online – making the case, and backing it up – for how we can fix Britain’s broken political system.

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Four striking general election outcomes showing the chaos of First Past the Post https://electoral-reform.org.uk/four-striking-general-election-outcomes-showing-the-chaos-of-first-past-the-post/ Thu, 18 Jul 2024 13:44:56 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8035

The dust is settling on the results of the 2024 UK general election. We have a Labour government for the first time since 2010, with a majority of seats almost as big as Tony Blair’s landslide of 1997. 

Beneath the surface of the overall result, however, there is much to explore. You can do this for yourself using our new 2024 general election dashboard – where you can investigate results at constituency, regional and national level. 

To kick off, here are four notable things from our analysis of the general election results. 

1. This was the most disproportional UK general election result in history

On the day after the general election, we crunched the numbers on the disparity between the number of votes and seats won by each party and we concluded that this was the most disproportional general election on record. The BBC Verify service backed up our findings. An example of this disproportionality is the fact that Labour won almost two-thirds of the MPs, with just one-third of votes. 

2. Fewer than 15% of MPs were elected with over half of the votes in their constituency

Just 96 of the 650 MPs were elected with a majority of votes in their area. There was just one constituency (Harrow East) where a Conservative MP received over half of the votes. This means that in 554 constituencies (85% of all seats), more people voted for losing candidates than voted for the winning candidate.

Under our First-Past-The-Post system (FPTP), a candidate needs just one more vote than the second-placed candidate, no matter how low their vote share. Overall, well over half of people (58%) voted for losing candidates. 

3. Wild results in Scotland

Over recent general elections, Scotland has seen some wild fluctuations in general election outcomes. In 2015, the Scottish National Party (SNP) won all but three seats in Scotland, with 50% of the votes. In 2024, they have been reduced to just 9 seats (16% of Scotland’s seats) despite still receiving 30% of votes in Scotland.

Meanwhile, Labour, who finished just 5 points ahead of the SNP in terms of votes (35%), picked up 37 Scottish seats (65% of all Scottish seats). This is because the SNP’s vote share was evenly spread across Scotland. They achieved close to 30% in many seats and came second in every single seat that they did not win. However, they could not get across the FPTP line in many places. This meant that despite receiving far fewer votes across Scotland, the Liberal Democrats (10% of votes; 6 seats) and the Conservatives (13% of votes; 5 seats) each picked up nearly as many Scottish MPs as the SNP did, as they had pockets of strength where they could get over the FPTP line. 

4. Very different outcomes for smaller GB-wide parties

Liberal Democrat voters have historically suffered under FPTP, failing to see their votes translated into adequate representation in the House of Commons. For example, at the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats received 336,038 votes per seat won, whereas the Conservatives received just 38,264 votes per seat.

In 2024, however, the Liberal Democrats had a more vote that was more efficiently spread than the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats achieved an MP for every 48,877 votes received, whereas the same figure for the Conservatives was 56,422 votes. This resulted in the unprecedented situation of the Liberal Democrats’ vote share and seat share being a closer match than the Conservatives’ vote and seat share. The Lib Dems received 11% of MPs from 12% of votes, whereas the Conservatives received 19% of MPs from 24% of votes. The Lib Dems were able to achieve this by focusing their efforts on areas of strength, mainly in southern England, and took advantage of the collapse in the Conservatives’ vote to win a record-breaking 72 MPs.

It was a very different story for the votes of other GB-wide parties who received more than 5% of votes. Despite receiving almost 600,000 more votes than the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK won just 5 seats (14% of votes but just 1% of seats). Meanwhile, the Green Party, despite making a number of breakthroughs still won only 4 seats (0.6% of seats, despite a record-breaking 7% of votes). Reform UK received 821,332 votes per MP elected and the Green Party received 485,814 votes per MP elected. 

Seats in Parliament should match how we vote

We need to end these random results thrown up by our broken First Past the Post system and make sure voters get the proper representation that their votes demand. Proportional Representation is an idea whose time has come. 

Add your name to our call for a fair electoral system

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ERS in the Press: General Election edition https://electoral-reform.org.uk/ers-in-the-press-general-election-edition/ Thu, 11 Jul 2024 14:47:33 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8005

Change. That was the driving message of Labour’s successful general election campaign, and change was very much on the agenda for the ERS Comms team (as far as the electoral system goes) as we’ve been kept busy with requests over the last few weeks of the campaign.

On election night

We’ve spent the last few months meeting journalists to discuss what could happen, and to make sure they understood the background on our issues.

Across the evening of the general election, whilst many of you were watching the exit poll come in, we were busy briefing journalists and commentators with the unexpected situations that our voting system often throws up. This original research was used across the main coverage, including Channel 4, the BBC, and Sky News. Our briefings also made its way into an episode of the chart topping political podcast, The Rest is Politics.

After the election

Post election, we have toured TV studios and papers to give journalists and the public the info they need to digest the election results. Our research team found that the 2024 general election results were the most disproportionate in British electoral history. It was an evening of firsts for other reasons too for example, this election was the first ever which saw four parties receiving 10%+ of the vote share.

Armed with this work, we arranged  for our Chief Executive, Darren Hughes, to go onto BBC Radio 4, BBC 5 Live, Times Radio  and the BBC Breakfast sofa to make the case for  proportional representation. We even had our research confirmed by BBC Verify.

ERS Chief Executive Darren Hughes on BBC Breakfast, Sunday 7th July

We’ve not just won coverage on the TV and Radio – newspapers and magazines have also picked up the story.

The I featured us to discuss the difference in votes it takes for an MP to be elected for each party, as did the Express. We reached a new audience as Cosmopolitan magazine looked at the voting system as a whole. While the Guardian and the Independent took a look at voter turnout and what could be done to improve it.

The Comms team at the ERS has been working so hard to push the agenda for proportional representation and electoral change in the media that there are too many links to feature! We will continue to press the new government that real ‘change’ can only come about with a fair, proportional voting system.

Support the ERS

As momentum builds for electoral reform, your support is more important than ever. Members support our work in parliament, in the press and online – making the case, and backing it up – for how we can fix Westminster’s broken system.

Join us from just £2 a month

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Slow progress as women finally make up 40% of Parliament https://electoral-reform.org.uk/slow-progress-as-women-finally-make-up-40-of-parliament/ Wed, 10 Jul 2024 16:17:23 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=8002

The 2024 General Election saw in a Labour Government and a brand-new cohort of MPs (335 new MPs) elected; but with all this churn how representative is our House of Commons? Before the election we published analysis of the candidates standing for election showing that only 31% of selected candidates were women. Let’s see how many were elected…

At the end of the last parliament, the UK had only ever had 564 women MPs, not enough to fill the House of Commons once over. But, with the 129 new women MPs elected on Thursday 4th July we have finally managed to fill the chamber once over (with 43 extra!).

The House of Commons is slowly creeping towards gender parity; however we are still lackadaisical in our approach to achieving gender parity in our elected bodies, leaving it up to parties to field women candidates rather than ensuring that women are on the ballot paper via other mechanisms such as gender quotas.

Read our report Pursuing Parity: Examining Gender Quotas Across Electoral Systems here.

No party stood a gender equal slate of candidates, and this is reflected in the make up of the House of Commons, 40% of current MPs are women (263 of 650). Whilst there are many other achievements to celebrate such as the first ever women Chancellor, the most gender diverse cabinet ever (11 of 24), the most state educated cabinet ever (22 of 24) and the most Black women ever elected.

There are still glaring gaps in our knowledge on the diversity of candidates at present there is no legal obligation for parties or candidates to declare the diversity of candidates yet many already collect this data internally. This data is important as it will increase knowledge on under-represented groups and where efforts should be focused to ensure our democracy and our elected bodies are representative of the diversity of the UK.

If we are to rely on parties are the drivers for diversifying representation in political life, then there must be a mechanism for holding parties to account for their efforts to do so. Section 106 of the Equality Act 2010 would require political parties to publish diversity data on candidates standing in elections to the House of Commons, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. The legislation already exists, it just needs to be enacted.

The enactment of Section 106 would compel parties to publish diversity data on their candidates for public office.

Add your name to demand that Women get their fair share.

Women make up 40% of parliament – it’s just not good enough

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The only bias in the electoral system should be towards the voters https://electoral-reform.org.uk/the-only-bias-in-the-electoral-system-should-be-towards-the-voters/ Mon, 08 Jul 2024 15:39:15 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=7999

In the days since the election, I have been touring TV and radio studios making the case for proportional representation and talking about how First Past the Post is failing millions of voters. The fact we have just witnessed the most disproportional general election on record has thrown a spotlight onto our electoral system like never before.

One thing I have noticed about the debate surrounding electoral reform is that it often descends into a squabble over who’s up and who’s down. The arguments get reduced to purely which parties would benefit from which voting systems.

But that’s the wrong way of looking at it, the only people that the electoral system should be biased towards are the voting public. They are the most important part of any election, and the voting system needs to ensure their voice is heard as clearly as possible by ensuring parliament accurately represents how they voted.

ERS Chief Executive Darren Hughes on BBC Breakfast, Sunday 7th July

The most important people in any election are the voters

The distorting First Past the Post voting system is clearly not doing that. That was never more evident than last week, when we saw the Westminster voting system produce a Parliament unprecedentedly disproportional from how the public voted.

For instance, we saw Labour win 63% of the seats in Parliament, 412 out of 650, on just 34% of the vote. Meanwhile, Reform and the Green Party combined won just over 20% of the vote share but received just over 1% of the seats, winning just 9 between them. To most people, that just won’t make any sense. Frankly, the voting system shouldn’t be this complicated: people should be able to vote for parties they support, and then Parliament should reflect how many votes those parties won.

ERS Chief Executive Darren Hughes on BBC Today Programme, Saturday 6th July

You shouldn’t choose an electoral system because you like the results 

We campaign for proportional representation at every election, as we think it’s just as unfair for Labour to get an unfair advantage as it is for the Conservatives. The thing with Westminster’s First Past the Post system is that it doesn’t care about the political background of the parties that it gives an advantage too, and the ones it punishes.

Choosing an electoral system because it would help your party at one point in time, is no guarantee that it will in the future. But an electoral system that gives a proportional outcome at this election, will give a proportional outcome at the next.

One of the reasons the voting system produced such a disproportional result last week is that the public are already voting as if we have a proportional voting system and this old system, which is designed for two parties, is buckling under the pressure.

The public are voting as if we already have PR

This was the first election ever, for example, where four parties received over 10% of the vote and five parties received over 5%. Meanwhile, this election saw the combined Labour and Conservative vote share slump to its lowest level on 57.4%. The second lowest combined vote share for the two parties was in 2010 when they received 65.1%.

We have known that the voting system has been failing for a long time. The last three general elections have seen a winning majority gained on just 36.9% of the vote in 2015, a minority government on 42.4% of the vote in 2017 and then an 80-seat majority achieved on a vote share increase of just 1.3% in 2019.

But now it feels as if the outdated First Past the Post voting system is creaking and failing voters on a massive scale. This has only strengthened the argument the ERS has long made: that it’s time to scrap this broken Westminster system and move to a fairer proportional voting system that accurately reflect how the whole country voted.

Are you a principled supporter of democracy?

Add your name to our call for every election to have a fair result

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How the 2024 election could have looked with proportional representation https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-the-2024-election-could-have-looked-with-proportional-representation/ Fri, 05 Jul 2024 15:49:53 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=7994

And the results are out. This election has the biggest difference ever between how we voted and the MPs that now represent us.

This was the first election ever where four parties got over 10% of the vote share. It is clear that the British public is already voting as if we have a proportional system.

 You can explore the results on our dashboard

But what if we had used the same electoral system they use for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments instead? With the Additional Member System (AMS) you choose a constituency candidate and have a second vote for your preferred party to represent you regionally. You can cast both votes for the same party or vote for different parties in your constituency and regional ballots. Regional seats are then allocated to parties on a proportional basis, taking into account the constituency MPs each party won.

It is important to note from the outset that it is impossible to predict with certainty what electoral results under different voting systems would be. This projection is merely an indication of what the results of this general election – conducted under FPTP – could have looked like using a different electoral system. 

It is of course impossible to account for the other changes that would accompany a switch to an alternative electoral system, such as changes in voter behaviour, party campaigning, or the number of parties standing candidates.

Our projection shows a result that is more in line with how we voted at the 2024 general election. Based on our projection, the Labour Party is still the largest party, but more in line with their percentage of the vote.

While Labour have fewer seats, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Green Party and Reform UK have shares far closer to their share of the vote.

No government should be able to win a big majority on a minority of the vote. Westminster’s voting system is warping our politics and we’re all paying the price. Under a proportional voting system, seats more closely match votes, so we can all have more impact on what happens in Westminster.

Add your name to our call for a fair electoral system

The figures were updated in December 2024 with a more rigorous analysis. This projection is based on a model of AMS with half constituency MPs and half regional list MPs. The regional lists are based on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plus the regions of England. Due to the complexities of the party system, Northern Ireland has not been modelled. 

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First three weeks of donation data show that money is attracted to power https://electoral-reform.org.uk/first-three-weeks-of-donation-data-show-that-money-is-attracted-to-power/ Wed, 03 Jul 2024 16:01:51 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=7991

From the dissolution of Parliament through to polling day, political parties are legally required to report any large sums of money they receive in donations. Within the first three weeks of campaigning for the upcoming general election, parties accepted over £12 million. Considering how they are polling, it is perhaps unsurprising that from this hefty sum, £8.8 million poured into Labour (including donations made to the Co-operative Party). The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK captured most of the rest in roughly equal amounts; the Conservatives took in £1.2 million, while the Lib Dems and Reform UK received just under £1 million each.*

Pre-poll disclosure law exists to provide transparency to regulators and voters alike, making it quicker and easier to spot lawbreaking and corruption.

What counts as a large sum, however, was revised in 2023, raising the threshold from £7,500 to £11,180. Although justified by the government as accounting for inflation, this change was met by the ERS and many others with widespread concern. It could, for example, make it easier for some donations to fly under the radar, preventing opportunities for public scrutiny. The decision also jarred uncomfortably with awareness that voter’s faith in the transparency of campaign finance has been declining over recent years.

Funds tend to flow towards power

Tracking donations during a campaign offers a window into what drives financial backing in politics. For the most part, money flows where success is expected. In the first three weeks of the current campaign, for example, Labour received 72% of donations reported by all parties.

In contrast, by polling day on the 12th of December in 2019, the Conservatives had racked up £19.4 million in support, making up 63% of all donations reported across the campaign.

Poll predictions are perhaps not the only driver of financial support. The issue of Brexit attracted over £4 million into Reform UK (then, the Brexit Party) in 2019, even with the Conservatives pushing ‘Get Brexit Done’ as their central message. Reform is also doing well this year on donations, tying neck and neck with the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, despite being predicted to only take a handful of seats in the Commons next week at best.

However, a look at the last two elections makes it apparent that the party widely expected to win is likely to receive far more donations during the pre-poll period than any other party.

Some donations are more transparent than others

The most notoriously untransparent of donors are unincorporated associations. These make up a relatively small – but still sizeable – chunk of total donations reported. During the first three weeks of this campaign, the Conservatives received £249,000 worth of support from them.

Ensuring only UK based entities can donate is an important protective barrier against foreign interference in our elections. Still, unincorporated associations face fewer requirements than other donors when it comes to making their sources known, potentially leaving a door open to possible influence. Stricter rules would better ensure only UK-based entities can donate.

Those facing more rigorous checks are individual donors, companies and Trade Unions, who together make up the majority of large-sum donations to political parties. In the first three weeks of campaigning this year, Labour accepted £6.2 million from individual donors, £2 million from Trade Unions, and £520,000 from companies.

The unknown influence of big donors

This begs the question, what influence do big donors have on our politics? Unlike the US and many democracies across Europe, the UK does not ban companies with public contracts from donating to political parties, or big donors from winning them.

Last week The Guardian released an article bringing public attention to how billions of pounds worth of government and NHS contracts granted since 2016 went to companies linked with Conservative party donors. By their calculations, the donors received 150 times more in profit than what they donated in support.

In the article, a Conservative Party spokesperson stated, correctly, that these associations are not evidence of legal wrongdoing. Yet, this very fact stresses the point we wish to make. While it is true donor-party links are not alone evidence of corruption, allowing for a clear conflict of interest weakens our protections against it.

Paired with increasing thresholds on anonymous donations, the laws as they stand are unlikely to reassure any voter already sceptical about the transparency of campaign finance.

Our laws could be stronger

A look at the vast amounts of money donated during this general election campaign brings back into sharp focus the need to reconsider our laws. Extending current transparency requirements to cover more donations, particularly those from unincorporated associations, and increasing the powers of the Electoral Commission to ensure legal compliance, are just a few steps out of many that can be taken to further secure both the integrity our elections and the strength of our democracy.

*Numbers calculated by the ERS using data made available through the Electoral Commission donations search tool. Only donations from weeks one to three have so far been made available for the 2024 general election pre-poll period.

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It should be a scandal that small changes in the vote result in outsize changes in Parliament https://electoral-reform.org.uk/it-should-be-a-scandal-that-small-changes-in-the-vote-result-in-outsize-changes-in-parliament/ Wed, 03 Jul 2024 15:49:14 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=7988

Two, rather similar, articles came out today on the likely impact of small swings in the vote on the results of the general election. In the Times, they identified 130,000 voters in 100 seats that could change the result for all of us from a 200-seat Labour majority and a hung parliament. In the Financial Times, similar research found 120 seats where the margin of victory is expected to be fewer than 5 percentage points – small swings in these seats could decide if the Conservatives win 146 seats, or 44…

The ‘quirks’ of our ‘odd’ electoral system

As the Times said in their piece “first-past-the-post is a strange electoral system where tiny changes in the tightest constituencies can produce chaotic results.” Others have described results like these as due to a ‘quirk’ of Westminster’s voting system.

A ‘quirky’ feature of our elections is candidates wearing big rosettes, like so many prize ponies. Let’s be clear, there is nothing quirky, odd or strange about an electoral system that consistently produces results that are way out of sync with the way we vote. The results of this election will decide the future path of the country.

People are so used to the usual pattern of general elections, that things that would seem outrageous in any other countries are treated as just normal. It should never become normal that the vast majority of voters make no difference to the result.

They count all the votes, but most have no impact

This isn’t a new thing. In the 2017 General Election, Theresa May famously lost her majority. But the Conservatives could have won an absolute majority on the basis of just 533 extra votes in the nine most marginal constituencies. A working majority could have been achieved on just 75 additional votes in the right places. Two very different outcomes based on less than 0.0017 percent of voters choosing differently.

Why do so few votes make a difference in UK elections?

The problem with elections in the UK is that they are actually 650 individual elections. Rather than trying to represent the diversity of opinions in your local area, just one MP is elected to represent everyone in a constituency – even if the majority of voters didn’t vote for them.

Votes cast for a candidate that didn’t win end up making no difference in Westminster. Added up across the whole country it means that millions of voters aren’t represented in Westminster. But also, to become an MP, a candidate just needs to beat the second placed candidate by a single vote, so if they win any more votes beyond this level, those votes don’t make any difference either.

Most voters fall into these two categories – if they had stayed at home, the result would have been exactly the same. When so many votes have no impact, the few that do matter have all the power.

We need a fair, predictable and proportional voting system

First Past the Post has been an engine of instability for years. A system designed for an era when everyone voted for the Whigs or the Tories simply doesn’t work when people vote for lots of different parties.

The one-person-takes-all nature of First Past the Post encourages short-termism and quick fixes, as in each election the incentive is to say anything to win over the handful of votes they need to win. Parties fall into factionalism as the route to power is seizing control of a party that already exists, as there is no viable way for new parties to win seats in line with their support.

Add your name to our call for a predictable and proportional voting system

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