PR Models – Electoral Reform Society – ERS https://electoral-reform.org.uk The Electoral Reform Society is an independent organisation leading the campaign for your democratic rights. Mon, 09 Dec 2024 15:10:10 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://electoral-reform.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/cropped-favicon-124x124.png PR Models – Electoral Reform Society – ERS https://electoral-reform.org.uk 32 32 How the 2024 election could have looked with proportional representation https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-the-2024-election-could-have-looked-with-proportional-representation/ Fri, 05 Jul 2024 15:49:53 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=7994

And the results are out. This election has the biggest difference ever between how we voted and the MPs that now represent us.

This was the first election ever where four parties got over 10% of the vote share. It is clear that the British public is already voting as if we have a proportional system.

 You can explore the results on our dashboard

But what if we had used the same electoral system they use for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments instead? With the Additional Member System (AMS) you choose a constituency candidate and have a second vote for your preferred party to represent you regionally. You can cast both votes for the same party or vote for different parties in your constituency and regional ballots. Regional seats are then allocated to parties on a proportional basis, taking into account the constituency MPs each party won.

It is important to note from the outset that it is impossible to predict with certainty what electoral results under different voting systems would be. This projection is merely an indication of what the results of this general election – conducted under FPTP – could have looked like using a different electoral system. 

It is of course impossible to account for the other changes that would accompany a switch to an alternative electoral system, such as changes in voter behaviour, party campaigning, or the number of parties standing candidates.

Our projection shows a result that is more in line with how we voted at the 2024 general election. Based on our projection, the Labour Party is still the largest party, but more in line with their percentage of the vote.

While Labour have fewer seats, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Green Party and Reform UK have shares far closer to their share of the vote.

No government should be able to win a big majority on a minority of the vote. Westminster’s voting system is warping our politics and we’re all paying the price. Under a proportional voting system, seats more closely match votes, so we can all have more impact on what happens in Westminster.

Add your name to our call for a fair electoral system

The figures were updated in December 2024 with a more rigorous analysis. This projection is based on a model of AMS with half constituency MPs and half regional list MPs. The regional lists are based on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plus the regions of England. Due to the complexities of the party system, Northern Ireland has not been modelled. 

]]> How the 2019 election results could have looked with proportional representation https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-the-2019-election-results-could-have-looked-with-proportional-representation/ Fri, 13 Dec 2019 10:31:52 +0000 https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/?p=4977

Ever wondered how the 2019 General Election result would have come out with a form of proportional representation?

The Single Transferable Vote (STV) is a form of proportional representation used in Northern Ireland for all non-Westminster elections, Scottish local elections, the Republic of Ireland, Malta and the Australian Senate.

STV ensures that very few votes are ignored when compared with FPTP. It also ensures maximum voter choice, as electors can rank their choices both within and between parties and independents. As a slate of MPs is elected from a slightly larger area than under FPTP, STV also keeps the constituency link while ensuring that the diversity of opinion in the country is fairly represented in parliament.

The 2019 General Elections in Great Britain under proportional representation (STV)

Seats under STV Difference in Seats from FPTP
Conservative 312 -53
Labour 221 +18
Liberal Democrat 59 +48
Scottish National Party 30 -18
Plaid Cymru 5 +1
Brexit Party 3 +3
Green Party 2 +1
Northern Ireland Parties 18 18
Total 650

The Northern Ireland Parties are grouped together as we did not have a sufficient sample size to model the results. We include votes for the Speaker in the Labour figure in the projection to ensure results reflect the fact that the Speaker’s constituency was a Labour seat prior to him taking on this role.

Our STV projection shows a result that is more proportional and more in line with how people voted at the 2019 general election. Based on our projection, the Conservative Party secures 312 MPs (49.4% of all GB MPs), just shy of a majority of seats in the House of Commons and more in line with their percentage of the vote in Great Britain (44.7%).

Though Labour and the Conservatives slightly outperform their vote share in terms of seats, smaller parties’ seat share in our model is much more similar to how people actually voted at the election, with the Liberal Democrats making significant gains in our projection (an additional 48 MPs, leading them to have 9.3% of seats on 11.8% of the vote).

No government should be able to win a big majority on a minority of the vote. Westminster’s voting system is warping our politics beyond recognition and we’re all paying the price. Under proportional voting systems, seats would more closely match votes, and we could end the scourge of millions feeling unrepresented and ignored.

Parties like the Greens and Brexit Party won huge numbers of votes and almost no representation. The Lib Dems saw a surge in votes and their number of seats fall. Something is very clearly wrong.

Voters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are used to using more democratic voting systems – and having a more cooperative politics as a result.  Westminster’s system is built on confrontation and warped results, but we can do better than this. We can move to a fairer system, restoring trust in politics and building a better democracy at the same time.

Sign our petition for a fair voting system

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