Last weekend, Plaid Cymru members gathered in Llandudno for their Spring Conference as they begin to set their sights on the 2026 Senedd election. As part of the event, ERS Cymru Director, Jess Blair, hosted a conversation with Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun Ap Iorwerth MS, to discuss the state of democracy – both in Wales and globally – the upcoming electoral changes, and Plaid Cymru’s vision for Welsh democracy.

The conversation began with a discussion on the growing threats to democracy worldwide, from social media disinformation to AI and the erosion of democratic norms. Rhun expressed concern over the rapid pace of these changes, warning that Wales is not immune to these threats despite some of them coming from overseas, saying:

“[Elon Musk] won’t know that there’s an election in Wales, but his algorithms will” – a stark statement that brings these threats into sharp focus. 

Bringing the discussion closer to home, Jess highlighted Wales’ consistently lower voter turnout compared to the UK average. Rhun said this was deeply troubling – especially for a nation with such a rich democratic history, such as the Chartist movement in the 1800s.

He suggested that a major driver of this apathy could be the uncompetitive nature of Welsh elections. “It’s not normal for one party to win every election,” he said, arguing that real democracy thrives on competition and accountability. For him, a government – whether led by Plaid Cymru or any other political party – should expect to be challenged at the ballot box.

The 2026 elections and the closed-list system

With the 2026 Senedd election bringing significant electoral reforms, the discussion turned to what this means for Welsh voters. Jess pointed out that explaining these changes will be crucial, as confusion could further disengage voters.

Rhun acknowledged this and emphasized that the shift is a step toward a fairer system. The removal of what he called Labour’s ‘in-built bias’ could, he argued, help restore faith in Welsh democracy.

Whilst acknowledging the proportionality of the new system, he did concede that the new closed-list system was not Plaid Cymru’s first choice, but a compromise was needed. That said, he thinks that the post-election review system – where the effectiveness of the election will come under scrutiny – could be used as a mechanism to instigate further change, saying:

“There is going to be a review. The review is built into the legislation that enacted this change in the first place, and we want to use that review.” 

As part of the justification of choosing this closed-list system, gender quotas were proposed so that parties would be forced to have 50% of their list candidates as women. However, this plan was dropped by the Welsh Government in September last year, instead being replaced by voluntary guidance. 

When asked about Plaid Cymru’s stance on this, Rhun praised Welsh Labour’s early efforts but stressed that all parties now have a responsibility to act. “It’s absolutely up to us to reflect Wales in the best way possible,” he said, calling on parties to embrace the new guidance and ensure the Senedd is truly representative of society.

“There is always a cost to democracy”

In 2026 the Senedd will increase in size to 96 members. The debate around this expansion often circles back to cost, and, in the conversation, Rhun ap Iorwerth tackled this head-on. While acknowledging that increasing the number of politicians is rarely popular, he argued that Wales was ‘democratically being shortchanged’ compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland, arguing that there is always a ‘cost to democracy’.

To put this into perspective, he pointed out that refurbishing the Houses of Parliament in Westminster will cost around £20 billion which could pay for Wales’ democracy for over 1000 years.

While these numbers may seem big, he said, referring back to the cost of an enlarged Senedd, “This is the price we must pay to properly look after the people of Wales through our democracy.”

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The latest Barn Cymru poll released earlier in December by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre suggests that Plaid Cymru could be the largest party in the Senedd come 2026. The poll put Plaid on 24 percent of the vote, ahead of Labour and Reform UK who both were on 23 percent, and the Conservatives on 19 percent.

At Plaid Cymru’s autumn conference back in October ERS Cymru held a fringe event asking “Where next for Welsh democracy?”. Baroness Smith of Llanfaes, member of the House of Lords; Heledd Fychan MS, Member of the Senedd for South Wales Central and Member of the Reform Bill Committee; and Councillor Elin Hywel, Cyngor Gwynedd (Gwynedd County Council), gathered to share their thoughts on the topic with Jess Blair, ERS Cymru Director chairing the discussion.

House of Lords Reform

Baroness Smith described how her first 6 months in the House of Lords has only made her more certain that our completely unelected second chamber is entirely inappropriate. Advocating for a fully elected chamber and flagging how the demographic skew in the make-up of the Lords marks their debates, giving the example of the debate on VAT charges for private schools, where many lords stood up and spoke on behalf of the 3% of children who attend private schools in the UK, yet hardly any for the 97% in state schools.

Baroness Smith stated that the removal of hereditary peers is a good first step towards reforming the House of Lords, but there is plenty more to be done. She would like to see the Labour government implementing more of their plans on House of Lords reform alongside other democratic reforms at Westminster – as detailed in the Brown Commission report.

Senedd Reform

Over the last few years, Senedd reform has, quite rightly, dominated discussions in Cardiff Bay. As Plaid Cymru’s representative on the Reform Bill Committee, Heledd Fychan MS spoke of how needed these reforms are, especially around the increase in number of members to 96. Her experience as a Councillor on Rhondda Cynon Taf council (with 75 councillors) showed her how a larger Senedd could improve scrutiny and committee work – a vital part of holding the Welsh Government to account and ensuring the best policies and legislation for the people of Wales.

She spoke of how the system wasn’t perfect, for example with the closed list PR electoral system, and raised how there were areas where Plaid are very disappointed. In particular with the withdrawal of the Bill which would have introduced legislative gender quotas. However she stated that it was still a marked improvement on the current system. Increasing the number of politicians is never going to be a popular decision, Heledd emphasised the need to parties and MSs to make the positive case for Senedd reform to the public.

With all of the changes happening ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, Heledd stressed the importance of clear communication to the electorate. She highlighted that in 2021 the potential of 16 and 17 year olds getting to vote wasn’t realised and that it was up to parties to make sure that they are appealing to newly enfranchised voters.

STV for Local Government

The option for local governments to move to a Single Transferable Vote (STV) system for their elections came in with the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021. Cllr Elin Hywel spoke of how vital it was that councils start having this conversation about democracy at a local level and how everyone in the community can be represented. The positive response of local people to Cyngor Gwynedd’s consultation on the change (over 72% of respondents in favour) showed the level of support improving local democracy.

The barriers to councils in Wales making the move to STV include the permissive nature of the change, putting all of the pressure on individual councils and Elin highlighted the sense that they were “doing this on our own” and whether it was fair to be going forward alone. She also raised the big challenge of getting a 2/3rd majority of councillors to vote for the change (46 of the 75 councillors on Cyngor Gwynedd), not least because the previous council meeting only had 45 councillors attend. The legislation as written has no flexibility for if councillors are off on sickness leave, maternity, or if a seat isn’t currently filled. It requires 2/3rd of the total number of councillors to vote yes for the change to happen no matter the circumstances at that time.

Elin spoke of the legislation requiring councils to lead by example and be brave, two things which Gwynedd has a history of doing, and the need for conversations between councils to share experiences and talk about councillors’ fears around the unknown. She also called for the Welsh Government to provide more guidance and support for councils in making these decisions going forward.

Next Steps

Less than two weeks after our fringe event, Cyngor Gwynedd held their historic vote on changing their electoral system to STV. With few exceptions the level of debate was high, as was the number of contributions across the chamber. Unfortunately, the vote in Gwynedd was lost and while the majority of councillors, 45 of the 75, voted for a fairer way to elect the council, it fell just one short of the two-thirds needed.

It was clear from our fringe event that Plaid’s ambition is to improve democracy at all levels of government for Wales. Given the potential for Plaid to become the largest party in the Senedd at the 2026 elections this continued commitment to improving democracy is exciting. We will be working with all parties ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections to ensure that their manifestos commit to improving democracy across Wales.

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The decision by both Plaid Cymru and the Greens to stand down at last week’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election has sparked a lot of talk in Westminster about political pacts.

Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price hailed the result – which saw the Welsh party fail to contest a Welsh parliamentary byelection for the first time – by our reckoning – since 1946 as not just a one-off but “a blueprint for the years ahead”.

On the other end of the political spectrum, Brexit Party chairman Richard Tice called for an electoral pact between Nigel Farage’s party and Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in order to defeat pro-Remain forces and force through a no-deal Brexit.

We’re seeing a crystallisation of a bizarre demand: parties – which exist to contest elections – being urged to stand aside to avoid ‘splitting the vote’.

These are short-term electoral alliances which don’t really provide a solution to our fragmented politics. But they do highlight something useful. They show up Westminster’s voting system for the anti-choice stitch up that it is.

These short-term electoral alliances show up Westminster's voting system for the anti-choice stitch up that it is. Click To Tweet

Alliance or no alliance, for too long our voting system has forced voters into making ‘tactical’ choices at the ballot box. In 2017, BMG polling for the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) suggested that one in five people held their nose and opted for their second or third choice party just to keep out someone they hated more.

First-past-the-post forces many voters into backing candidates they don’t even particularly like simply to make sure the ‘least worst’ option wins. But now, with our politics more polarised than ever and support increasingly spread across more parties, we’re seeing political leaders forced to make these calculations themselves.

In Wales, we saw an unofficial alliance of Remain parties to make a strong stance against the hard Brexit positions on the Conservative and Brexit party candidates. In doing so, the Green party, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru put aside their very real policy differences to boost one candidate. Westminster’s winner-takes-all electoral system meant different perspectives were crowded out.

But voters don’t just want a Leave vs Remain party, or Left vs Right: they want real choice and to be fairly represented.

But voters don't just want a Leave vs Remain party, or Left vs Right: they want real choice and to be fairly represented. Click To Tweet

With Johnson’s majority of one, it is clear that political parties are gearing up for a snap-general election: one in which, like it or not, Brexit is going to be a deciding factor for many, if not most, voters.

But to force parties, as well as voters, into just two camps is an artificial attempt to restore our multi-party system into an outdated two-party structure. That will do little to bring people together and instead further intrench the polarisation that blights our politics today.

There is a point of consensus in Britain though. The political system is not fit for purpose. From back-room deals to minority government, first-past-the-post has now adopted all of its own criticisms against proportional representation for itself – but without any element of fair representation or voter choice.

From back-room deals to minority government, first-past-the-post has now adopted all of its own criticisms against proportional representation for itself Click To Tweet

Let’s do something radical and take this back to first principles: People should always be able to vote for the candidates that reflect their views – not be forced into supporting the least-worst option by undemocratic backroom deals between politicians.

Only when every vote matters and every voice is heard can we begin to build a politics of genuine cooperation, where parties working together is done in the national interest and not just as a cynical electoral strategy designed to get one over on the other side.

Westminster is isolated among developed democracies in forcing an absurd winner-takes-all stitch-up on the public. It turns our election debate into one of mere arithmetic and process – taking debate away from the many issues people care about today.

Westminster is isolated among developed democracies in forcing an absurd winner-takes-all stitch-up on the public. Click To Tweet

It’s time to scrap this reverse arms race of parties being urged to stand aside – and instead back a fair electoral system, where choice is valued and citizens’ voices are actually heard.

This article originally appeared on Politics.co.uk’s Comment and Analysis section.

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