Open letter from former Welsh Assembly Members responding to the National Assembly for Wales’ Expert Panel on Electoral Reform. 

Wales needs an Assembly which has the resources to ensure that the financial, policy and legislative decisions taken by Welsh Government are robust.

As former AMs, we write to support the case for increasing the number of Members who serve in our National Assembly for the sake of our communities and the people of Wales.

The recently published report by the Expert Panel on Electoral Reform made the case for more Members both urgent and compelling.  It concludes that because of its current size, “it is only a matter of time before the Assembly is unable to fulfil its responsibilities to work for and represent the people of Wales effectively”.

Our Members need more time available to them to scrutinise Ministers properly, and to deal with the challenges and opportunities they face in this changing constitutional and political environment.

The need for more Members was first highlighted with the publication of the Richard Commission report in 2004.  Since then, over the last 13 years, our Assembly has become a parliament with greater areas of responsibility, including law-making and tax-varying powers.

Currently, most Members are expected to sit on so many committees that their time and ability to pursue matters with the depth and intensity required, is severely restricted.

Other avenues to increase capacity have not only been explored but have also been implemented – with the hours, the days and the weeks Assembly Members sit in session all extended.

When comparing the size of our National Assembly with other institutions in the UK and abroad, it is clear that our institution is unusually small, and that the people of Wales are far less well represented per head of population compared with equivalent legislatures across the world.  In fact, our national parliament has fewer elected representatives than many local authorities in Wales.

In Wales, we need an effective, dynamic and strong institution which delivers for our communities, and we cannot afford too much delay before addressing this matter.

We understand and appreciate the public’s reluctance to see an increase in the number of politicians. We believe however that the overwhelming case for an increase in the numbers of AMs should overcome any such reluctance when explained clearly and honestly

We therefore call on the National Assembly to consult widely with the people of Wales to explain why an increase to the size of the institution is necessary, and then to legislate to create a parliament that delivers effectively for the whole nation.

Edwina Hart
Former Labour AM for Gower and former Minister for Business, Enterprise and Technology and former Health Minister

Leighton Andrews
Former Labour AM for the Rhondda and former Minister for Education

Dame Rosemary Butler
Former Labour AM for Newport West and former Presiding Officer of the National Assembly for Wales

Andrew Davies
Former Labour AM for Swansea West, former Minister for Enterprise, and former Minister for Finance and Public Service Delivery

Jonathan Morgan
Former Conservative AM for Cardiff North and former Chair of the Assembly’s Health, Wellbeing and Local Government Committee

Lisa Francis

Former Conservative AM for Mid and West Wales and 2007 Dods Assembly Woman of the Year Award winner

William Graham
Former Conservative AM for South Wales East and former Chair of the Welsh Conservative Group in the National Assembly

Ieuan Wyn Jones
Former Plaid Cymru AM for Ynys Môn, former Plaid Cymru leader and former Deputy First Minister

The Right Honourable Lord Dafydd Wigley,
Former Plaid Cymru AM and MP for Caernarfon and former Leader of Plaid Cymru

Jocelyn Davies
Former Plaid Cymru AM for South Wales East and former Minister for Housing and Regeneration

Baroness Jenny Randerson
Former Liberal Democrat AM for Cardiff Central, former Minister for Culture, Welsh Language and Sport and former Minister of State for Wales

Aled Roberts
Former Liberal Democrat AM for North Wales and former Leader of Wrexham County Borough Council

In 20 years of its existence – through the growth in the Assembly’s responsibilities to the expansion of the Welsh Government and its powers, one thing has changed very little: the Senedd’s capacity to scrutinise, debate and hold Ministers to account. And it’s starting to feel the strain. 

This week, the Expert Panel on Assembly Reform – set up to assess how the Assembly needs to be changed and modernised amid the great changes we see today – released its final report.

The recommendations, if implemented, could be a game-changer for Welsh democracy.

They are calling for a more proportional voting system – the ERS’ preferred system of the Single Transferable Vote. Switching to the system used for Scottish local elections would give voters a stronger say over candidates, and would ensure seats always match votes in a more proportional Assembly.

The panel are also calling for votes at 16 – something Scotland introduced for all elections (except Westminster) last year – as well as improvements to ensure greater a better gender balance in politics. When it comes to votes at 16, we know that in Scotland, 16 and 17 year olds turn out in greater numbers than 18 to 24 year olds. For Wales, this could revitalise political engagement.

And the report proposes an extra 20-30 Assembly Members – which could be paid for by no longer having MEPs in Brussels.

MEPs currently cost £1.79 million each per year. Since each AM represents a fraction of that cost, Welsh citizens can have more bang for our buck in a stronger, more effective Senedd.

At the moment, there are already signs that legislation and scrutiny here in Wales are taking a hit as a result of being under-resourced.

But an increase in capacity would take Wales’ Senedd up to the size of Northern Ireland’s Stormont – a legislature which serves just over a million people compared to Wales’ three million.

And it could reap significant dividends to the taxpayer, by improving legislation, policy and decision-making.

This report is a key moment in the Assembly’s history, and the proposals will be vital in securing it’s the success of the Senedd in the future.

Votes at 16, a stronger, more effective assembly, and a more responsive voting system through the Single Transferrable Vote are all essential in revitalising Welsh democracy.

The case for change is clear: with new powers after Brexit and further devolution – but no extra resources to deal with them – the Assembly is facing a capacity time bomb. More powers means we need the Members to be able to scrutinise the big decisions that will affect our lives.

Now comes the tricky part. Parties in the Assembly must now take on board these recommendations and, with voters at the core, chart the next steps forward. It is vital that this report does not sit and gather dust.

Parties have to take action to ensure that these changes can be introduced for the next Assembly election, scheduled for 2021.

That means starting with energy in the new year so that Wales isn’t left short when powers return from Europe.

This is about creating a stronger Senedd – one that is fit to face the challenges that the next few years will bring.

It’s an exciting opportunity – now let’s embrace it.

Read the full report here

Jess Blair says the case for a larger Assembly has to be made beyond Cardiff Bay to the people it will impact.

Having more Assembly Members isn’t necessarily on anyone’s Christmas list, but it should be.

Increasing the size of the Assembly has been a topic of discussion within the Bay Bubble for quite some time now. Indeed, ERS Cymru has worked on two reports on the subject; Size Matters and Reshaping the Senedd.

The initial suggestion was however made by the Richard Commission, back in 2004, and shortly we will see the outcome of an Expert Panel on Assembly Reform, Chaired by Professor Laura McAllister.

This is set to be the next step in the debate and likely the most impactful intervention to date, depending on the findings of the panel.

Yet, this isn’t a discussion that should just be had among decision makers themselves. It is vital that people across Wales are able to engage with this conversation. Talking about having more politicians will never be easy or, if we’re honest, particularly popular with voters, which is why the case for more Assembly Members must be made wider than Cardiff Bay.

This is because the issues that are coming as a result of a lack of capacity in the Assembly don’t end in the Senedd, they are increasingly having direct consequences on the people the Assembly is meant to benefit.

Take legislation, for example. The Assembly’s Committee structure is a vital forum for scrutinising legislation, considering the insight of experts on the relevant issue and ultimately ensuring legislation is fit for purpose. With just 44 Assembly Members who sit on Committees (when you exclude the Cabinet, party leaders and the Presiding Officer), AMs can currently be on up to three Committees. While this has improved since the days of AMs leaving their coat in one room while dashing over to check what the other Committee they sat on was up to, an increasing workload has made capacity a clear issue for Committees.

A case in point goes to a current piece of legislation where no full Committee has the space to deal with it. Instead a subcommittee of four AMs will be responsible for this legislation. This surely does not give this Bill the attention it needs to deliver its full potential.

This case isn’t just a one off.

Since 1999 the Assembly has changed immeasurably; more powers, the ability to legislate, and tax raising powers. This change is ongoing. Many of the powers in this year’s Wales Act don’t come into place until next year, we will soon have a budget where Welsh Government will be responsible for raising some of their own revenue, and let’s not get started on what is likely to be a complex transfer of power, legislation, and humungous policy gaps, particularly in areas like agriculture, as a result of Brexit.

I said at the beginning of this piece that we need to look at the real consequences of not having enough AMs to do the job properly and there will undoubtedly be real consequences if we do not have sufficient numbers when these new raft of powers are implemented.

These new powers take the Senedd into the big leagues, and we can’t play without a full team.

Given the tidal waves that have rocked our politics this year, it may seem an unusual time to be discussing the need for more Assembly Members. In a year of populist shocks and rhetoric, the call for more AMs is difficult, and to many, treacherous waters indeed.

But it is also necessary. The political weather has changed, making the challenge of ensuring the Assembly can navigate the new seas we find ourselves in more acute. With the likely transfer of substantial EU powers and responsibilities over a whole myriad of issues, such as agriculture, energy or fisheries, the argument for a larger and more effective Assembly has only become more compelling.

The argument also held true three years ago, when we released our comprehensive study of how the Assembly is small in comparison to similar bodies – and how having too few members makes for huge difficulties in developing adequate scrutiny of Ministers and legislation, with AMs being squeezed across several different committees.

But now with Brexit, as well as new tax powers, we don’t just need all hands on deck – we need a bigger crew to deal with the new policy-making opportunities that such seismic changes herald.

To do so will require a reliable compass. Reshaping the Senedd, produced jointly between Electoral Reform Society Cymru and the Wales Governance Centre, provides a way forward.

New tax powers, and the prospect of additional powers from Europe, make the case for a larger, fairly-elected Assembly, stronger than ever. And given that many now recognise the need for a more effective and accountable Assembly, ‘Reshaping the Senedd’ moves from the ‘why’ to the ‘how’: practical ways to achieve a larger, more democratic Assembly.

Through the Wales Bill, the Assembly is set to be given the power to change its size and voting system – but only with two-thirds of AMs voting in favour.

That means cross-party agreement is needed. So consensus is not just desirable but essential for change to happen. That, of course, is how it should be: changes to the rules of the game require a different kind of debate that goes beyond partisan politics.

This report gives people the key principles and practical tools to have a clear-headed and positive debate about how we make a bolstered Assembly work better for voters and Welsh politics as a whole.

We identify the key principles to a good electoral system as follows:

1.     Proportionality: A new electoral system should be likely to produce outcomes no less proportional than those produced by the present system, and ideally more proportional than the current system.

2.     Simplicity and Coterminosity: Electoral boundaries for the National Assembly should, as far as possible, be coterminous with others (such as mirroring Westminster boundaries). This makes things simpler for both voters and parties.

3.     Sustainability and Stability: Any reformed electoral system should be sustainable. It should not need to change again fundamentally in the near future. This may require that it is also flexible and adaptable to minor changes as necessary.

4.     Broad-based consensus: Decisions on the electoral ‘rules of the game’ should always be based on as broad a consensus as possible; there should be checks against individual parties being able to change electoral systems for partisan gain.

5.     Strong and Equal Mandates: All Assembly Members should have clear and equal mandates; if mandates are different there should be no sense of some representatives being ‘second-class’ AMs.

6.     Representativeness: Insofar as possible, the electoral system should produce a body of representatives who reflect the electorate, in terms of race, gender, disability, religion, age, social class and diversity of opinions.

7.     Substantial support: Election to the National Assembly should require a substantial level of public support; the effective threshold for election should reflect this.

Since there’s no perfect system that fully satisfies every principle, this is about finding the right balance across these different imperatives. We know that parties will approach this from different standpoints, so Reshaping the Senedd can be used as a serious basis for building the common ground needed to take Welsh democracy forward.

Nevertheless, the report finds several systems unsuitable for serious consideration, either due to substantial issues with the key principles, or the fact that they are unlikely to reach the necessary level of consensus. These include a Westminster-style First Past the Post system, the Alternative Vote, a Mixed Member Majoritarian system, and variants of the current AMS system such as using a National List. None of these meet the criteria a larger Assembly needs to function effectively and democratically.

Our preferred options are as follows:

• Single Transferable Vote (STV) –  87 members elected in 29, 3-member constituencies
• Open List – 87 members elected in 29, 3-member constituencies

Adapting the current Additional Member System (AMS) is also a plausible, although unwieldy, option.

Balancing the different principles is precisely that – a matter of balance. Different groups will have different interpretations and will weigh the issues differently. However, some area of common ground on which discussions take place is vital to allow space for discussion of the ‘rules of the game’ to take place and to go beyond – or at least mitigate against – partisan self-interest.

This framework gives parties of all stripes the necessary tools to go forward on the basis of a rational discussion that puts the interests of Welsh democracy first – bothin terms of a fair voting system, and in ensuring the Assembly has the necessary tools to hold the Welsh Government properly to account in the decisions that lie ahead.

The political tide is changing. Whether you take the view that it provides new opportunities for the Assembly to chart its own course, or take the view that we’re entering dangerous waters, one thing is clear. As Roy Schneider said it in his famous line in Jaws: “We’re gonna need a bigger boat.” How we build it is up to us. 

“Reshaping the Senedd: How to elect a more effective National Assembly” is a joint report by Electoral Reform Society Cymru and Wales Governance written by Professor Roger Scully and Dr Owain ap Gareth. You can find the full report here, and in Welsh here. 

‘May you live in interesting times’ goes the old Chinese curse. And few could deny that we do: Brexit, a party system in flux, and a constitution in tumult all mark new times for the UK. But with potentially significant powers going to the Welsh Assembly after Britain leaves the EU, and with the current Wales Bill set to shake up the Senedd, it’s interesting times especially for Wales.

With greater powers come greater responsibilities. And therefore a lot more strain on our political institutions. In the face of that, Wales needs greater capacity to scrutinise, legislate, challenge and act to govern in this emerging political context.

So it’s in that knowledge that new proposals for electing a larger, more effective and accountable Assembly have been set out by Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre and Electoral Reform Society Cymru.

The Assembly is set to be given the power to change its size and voting system, subject to the passing of the Wales Bill, but only with two-thirds of AMs voting in favour, meaning cross-party agreement is needed.

Reshaping the Senedd is the first analysis of how a larger Assembly should be elected as it takes on increased powers. It outlines seven principles, such as simplicity and proportionality that should inform how a larger Assembly could be elected. We want all parties to sign up to these principles as a basis for rational debate.

The report finds several systems, such as Westminster’s “First Past the Post” system, unsuitable. So after looking at a wide range of options, we come down with two possible choices:

• Single Transferable Vote (STV) –  87 members elected in 29, 3-member constituencies
• Open List – 87 members elected in 29, 3-member constituencies

As well as those, adapting the current Additional Member System (AMS) is also a plausible, if unwieldy, option (you’ll have to read the report to find out why).

Of course, there’s no perfect system that fully satisfies every principle, so this is about finding the right balance.

The report follows the cross-party Silk Commission’s recommendation for a larger Assembly, which formed the basis of the cross-party St David’s Day Agreement in March 2015. After the Silk Commission, many recognised the need for a more effective and accountable Assembly. So Reshaping the Senedd moves from the ‘why’ to the ‘how’.

We look at practical ways to achieve a larger, more democratic Assembly that can deal with the new challenges and opportunities that will arise through the Wales Bill and following Brexit.

Parties will approach this from different standpoints, so Reshaping the Senedd can be used as a serious basis for building the common ground needed to take Welsh democracy forward. What is clear though is that consensus is not just desirable, but essential for change to happen.

And that’s how it should be: changes to the rules of the game require a different kind of debate that goes beyond partisan politics.

Whatever the case, new tax powers, and the prospect of additional powers from Europe make the case for a larger, fairly-elected Assembly, stronger than ever.

This report gives people the key principles and practical tools to have a clear-headed and positive debate about how we make a bolstered Assembly work better for voters and Welsh politics as a whole.

We do live in interesting times – but it doesn’t have to be a curse. Let’s seize the opportunities for building a better democracy.