On Thursday 7th May, Wales headed to the polls for the Senedd election. This was an election that delivered seismic change for Wales; seeing Welsh Labour lose their position as the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever, and putting Plaid Cymru in government, with Reform UK Wales as the official opposition.

The new Senedd has 43 Plaid Cymru MSs, 34 Reform MSs, nine Labour MSs, seven Conservative MSs, two Green MSs and one Lib Dem Member.

2026 Welsh Senedd Election Results

How did the new voting system fare?

Beyond the headline results, we saw a new voting system used for the election, with all 96 Members of the Senedd elected via the Closed List electoral system for the first time. Under this system, parties put up lists of candidates in each of the 16 new constituencies across Wales. Voters were able to endorse a party’s list of candidates or vote for an independent.

From its inception in 1999 to 2021, 60 members sat in Cardiff Bay, elected using an Additional Member (AMS) System, which saw 40 seats elected using First Past the Post (FPTP) and topped up with 20 regional list seats elected under Closed Lists. The new system to elect a larger Senedd was intended to be a more proportional one, and manage the 96 Members on an equal mandate ending the practice of having a combination of constituency and regional MSs.

To establish whether this system was more proportional than the previous one, a score can be calculated, which is referred to as a DV score. Essentially, the lower the score the more proportional an election. For the 2026 Senedd election the DV score (using the Loosemore-Hanby DV method) is 15.5, which puts it around average for the DV score for the previous Senedd election’s list votes compared with seats in the previous Senedds. This means that in 2026 the Closed List system behaved much in the same way as it has done in previous Senedd elections on this measure.

Comparing this with a UK General Election in Wales demonstrates how much more proportional this system is than the Westminster system. The Welsh results at the UK General Election had a DV score of 47.4 and over a similar timeframe have an average of 29.3.

Interestingly, the over-representation of the largest party is the lowest in any Senedd election to date (9.4 points). This compares to an average of 13.7 points across the first 6 Senedd elections and is the first time this figure has been under 10 points.

That isn’t to say that everyone is happy with this system. ERS has always been critical of its lack of voter choice and the fact that voters are unable to directly elect an individual from a party list. An alternative system, the Single Transferable Vote, was the one recommended by both a panel of experts and a previous Senedd committee, yet wasn’t put in place for this election. A review mechanism could now be used to tweak or change the Closed List system ahead of the 2030 elections, but it is currently too early to say whether MSs will vote to establish this or have the mandate to affect any changes.

How does this measure up with English local elections?

Compared with some of the other elections held last Thursday the Senedd election was much better able to manage the fragmentation we are seeing across the UK. With local elections in England held under FPTP on the same day we have a direct comparison for how different voting systems handle voters’ wishes.

Thursday’s council elections in England produced a string of disproportional results. In South Cambridgeshire the Liberal Democrats won 95.6% of seats on 41.6% of the vote, while in Wandsworth the Conservatives garnered the most seats despite winning fewer votes than Labour. There are also examples; of where parties who won a similar percentage of the vote to Plaid Cymru in the Senedd election (35.4%) have benefited hugely under FPTP, such as Havering where Reform UK won 70.9% of the seats on 36.3% of the vote. Across a number of councils, large swathes of voters – over a third in some cases – ending up with no representation at all.

Within this context the proportional representation systems that we have seen used in Wales and Scotland (which used AMS for its election last week) have held up much better. While the Welsh system could be improved, particularly in terms of giving voters a direct link with their representatives, it has been able to deliver a much more proportional result than those we’ve seen in England.

A look ahead

While the dust hasn’t even begun to settle on the Senedd election, voters will be back to the ballot box in just a year’s time for the Welsh local authority elections. While we’ve had PR for the Senedd, those elections will still be held under FPTP and may cause parties much more of a headache if we see anything like the disproportionality we have just seen in England’s local elections. If parties want to look to avoid replicating the problems we’ve seen in England, then time is of the essence to ensure FPTP becomes a thing of the past in Wales.

Find out more about Senedd reform

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On 7th May 2026, voters across Wales will elect not just a new Senedd, but a fundamentally different one. This is due to the practical level of how the election will work in Wales, where we will see an entirely new set of arrangements in place for the very first time.

The changes to the Senedd

When the Senedd was established in 1999, it was with 60 Members (MSs) elected via a combination of 40 First Past the Post seats and 20 regional Closed Party List Proportional Representation seats.

Following changes in the previous Senedd it will be 96 Members taking their seats in May, bringing the Senedd into line with the Scottish Parliament at 129 MSPs and the Northern Ireland Assembly at 90 MLAs, especially given Northern Ireland has a smaller population than Wales.

Alongside this increase, Welsh voters will use a new electoral system. All 96 MSs will be elected via a Closed List system, where parties will field a list of candidates in each constituency. Voters will be able to cast a vote for a party or an independent candidate, but not an individual on a party’s list. So, if your favourite candidate is stuck at fourth on their party’s list, you have no way of moving them up.

To facilitate these changes, 16 new constituencies have been created, which mirror the 32 Westminster constituencies, with six MSs returned in each. On top of this, elections are moving from a five-year to a 4-year term, and the limit on the number of government ministers allowed is increasing from 12 to 17, which could increase further to 18 or 19, subject to the Senedd’s approval.

How have we got here, and why?

It has been a long road to get here. The need to increase the number of MSs has been discussed since the early days of devolution. An Expert Panel, chaired by Professor Laura McAllister, was established in 2017, which recommended an increase in the size of the Senedd, and was followed by a number of Senedd committees which concurred with the panel’s recommendations. After the 2021 election, we saw the outline of a deal between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru that led to a formal agreement on the details.

Finally, in 2024, the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act received Royal Assent, and the changes that followed are now in effect for the first time.

The Senedd has long needed an increase in its capacity. It is not acceptable for a national parliament with law making and tax raising powers to be smaller than many local authorities. Ten of Wales’ 22 local authorities are either the same size or larger than the Senedd was at 60 members.

That’s not to say that these reforms were easy. There will always be a difficulty in making the case for more politicians, and some political parties were opposed to the changes.

However, let’s take the case of committees in the Senedd. In practice, having 60 MSs has actually meant a lot fewer than that are able to sit on committees, as government ministers, party leaders of official groups in the Senedd, and the Presiding Officer do not sit on committees. The reality of the Senedd until now has been one of Members sitting on multiple committees, of sub-committees of just a couple of MSs scrutinising vital legislation.

This has not been good enough.

Imagine you were a Member of the Senedd with two committee meetings that week, with hundreds of pages of notes and evidence submitted by external organisations for each of these meetings. That’s not including the two pieces of legislation and hundreds of amendments you need to look at ahead of crucial votes in plenary, a debate you need to prepare for and a budget vote. Compare this with Westminster, where MPs will typically be on only one committee, although lots aren’t on any. This allows MPs to develop expertise in a particular area and be really across their brief. Increasing the size of the Senedd to 96 while not substantially increasing the number of committees should allow for MSs to have to sit on far fewer committees and develop the expertise on their issue that will lead to better scrutiny of both crucial legislation and substantial budgets. Our parliament needs to be sufficiently resourced to properly scrutinise a Welsh government budget of over £27 billion.

The increase to 96 members will hopefully lead to a much more effective parliament and scrutiny function.

The problem with the electoral system

Because of the increase to 96 Members the previous electoral system was found to be not workable (sufficient), and a new system has been put in place – the aforementioned Closed List system. This is despite it being ruled out by the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform and despite it being hugely flawed.

Voters will head to the polls on May 7th this year and find themselves unable to vote for their preferred candidate. This means voters will have to endorse a party’s list of candidates. The people who represent us in our national parliament will ultimately be chosen, in some cases, by party members and, in some, by party HQs in London or Cardiff.

An effective voting system needs to do a number of things, including being proportional, which in plain language means that the Senedd looks the way the Welsh people voted and the seats parties get match the votes they won. However, a good electoral system also needs strong accountability between voters and the politicians who represent them. The Closed List system, whilst good on proportionality, falls down on the voter link and accountability.

There is a chance to change this system in the next Senedd. A review mechanism was built into the legislation reforming the Senedd, and pretty soon after May, Members may well find themselves voting on whether to establish this review. Whether this will happen will depend on the makeup of the next Senedd. Some political parties have pledged to enact this review in their manifestos, while others have not.

If this system is reviewed, there is an obvious alternative to replace it – recommended for the Senedd by the Expert Panel and a Senedd committee – the Single Transferable Vote (STV).

STV is a system that is tried and tested in the UK and has been working well in Scotland (for local elections), Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland for decades. This is a system of proportional representation, where voters number the candidates on their ballot paper. Their favourite candidate is marked as number one, their second favourite number two, and so on. Voters can put numbers next to as many or as few candidates as they like. This system ensures proportionality and gives voters much more choice. For example, if your favourite candidate has no chance of being elected, your preferences will tell the people counting the votes to move your vote to your second preference candidate.

When voters in Wales head to the polls on 7 May, they will be electing a very different Senedd. Change may well be the buzzword for this election, but it feels unlikely that there won’t also be a call for further change, especially when it comes to the arrangements for future elections. At a time when trust in politics is at an all-time low, we need to ensure that the Senedd, and all parliaments in the UK, not only properly reflect how people voted but also maintain a strong link and accountability between voters and elected politicians.

This article was initially published by UCL

Whatever happens in May, the next Senedd election is set to be historic. For instance, recent polling has pointed to the chance that Labour might not be the largest party in the Senedd for the first time. But it’s not just who is sitting in the Siambr that could change.

The way we vote for our Members of the Senedd (MSs) is also set to change with the new ‘closed proportional list’ system. Yet, many voters are still not fully aware of how the new system works.

How have Senedd elections worked so far?

Since its creation, the Senedd has used a mixed system called the Additional Member System. 40 Members were elected using Westminster-style First Past the Post while the remaining 20 were elected through a proportional system designed to balance things out.

Without enough members to properly scrutinise the legislation passing through the Senedd, it always suffered from a lack of capacity – especially compared to the Scottish Parliament on 129 seats and the Northern Ireland Assembly on 90 seats. When MSs voted to increase the size of the Senedd to 96 to better match their workload, the inevitable question of how these new members should be elected came up. MSs decided to adopt a ‘closed proportional list’ system.

How the new system works

Wales will be divided into 16 new constituencies, each one electing six Members of the Senedd. Instead of having two votes, you will now have just one. You can vote for a party or an independent candidate. Seats are then shared out based on how many votes each party receives.

Let’s break down how a ‘closed proportional list’ works in practice.

What does the proportional part mean?

Under the new approach, seats are allocated in proportion to the vote in each constituency. If a party wins half of the vote, it is likely to win three out of six seats.

The system uses a method called D’Hondt, after its inventor, to decide who gets each seat.

Counting takes place in rounds, with the party with the highest total in each round getting an MS. After each round they divide the number of votes cast for each party by the number of seats they have already won, plus one, and the party that now has the most votes gets the next MS. This process continues until all 6 seats are filled.

What is the list?

Parties have lists of candidates for each constituency. These are published in advance and printed on the ballot paper. If a party wins one seat, it’s the candidate at the top of the list is elected. If they win three, the top three on that party’s list become MSs.

Independent candidates can stand too. And if they receive enough support, they can win a seat in the same way.

Wales stands at an important crossroads in its democratic journey. ERS Cymru has developed a proposal to change the way we elect members of the Senedd, replacing the planned closed-list system with the Single Transferable Vote (STV). This proposal represents not just a technical adjustment, but a fundamental conversation about the kind of democracy we want for Wales.

Under STV, people can choose between individual candidates as well as parties, ensuring that elected representatives are accountable directly to the voters who elect them. Working with Alun Davies MS and members of other political parties, ERS has developed a bill to make this vision a reality.

Why This Matters for Voters

The Senedd election next year will be held under a system no one wanted – the closed list system. Closed lists will deliver a proportional result but will not deliver accountability, with voters only being able to back political parties rather than the individual candidates on the ballot paper that will actually represent them in the Senedd.

Both the Committee on Senedd Electoral Reform and the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform recommended the Single Transferable Vote (STV) instead of the closed list system, which would deliver both proportionality, ensuring the Senedd looks the way the Welsh people voted, and direct accountability to voters for MSs.

Voter choice is not a technical detail; it is the foundation of trust in our institutions. When people can identify the individuals they have helped elect, it strengthens legitimacy and engagement. Closed lists, by contrast, risk creating a sense of distance between voters and those who serve them.

Strengthening Accountability and Representation

The introduction of STV would mark a positive step towards a more open and representative Senedd. It would allow people to express nuanced preferences and ensure that no vote is wasted. In practical terms, this means that the Senedd would better reflect the diversity of views across Wales.

This reform also matters for accountability. Under STV, individual members of the Senedd would need to maintain direct relationships with their communities, earning and retaining the trust of those who elect them. That personal link is crucial if we are to build a legislature that feels connected, responsive and legitimate.

Building a Better Democracy for Wales

After the next Senedd election in May 2026 Members of the Senedd will have the chance to review the closed list system.

Wales has the opportunity once again to show leadership in democratic innovation. We have done it before. From devolution to gender balance in representation, Wales has shown that reform can make politics work better for people.

Moving to STV would continue that tradition. It would bring more openness, more accountability and a system that truly reflects the will of voters. It would mean that every vote counts and that every voter can recognise their influence in shaping the Senedd.

We warned from the start that closed lists risked being a lose-lose compromise and that we needed a voting system that works for the Welsh people. This draft Bill demonstrates how easy the change from the closed list system to STV would be, if the circumstances after the May election meant a change would be possible. As a reminder, constitutional change in Wales requires a 2/3 majority of Senedd Members to vote in favour, so this would need to be a change backed across the political spectrum.

For democracy to thrive, people must feel that their voice matters. Reforming the voting system is one of the most powerful ways to make that happen. The debate now beginning in Wales is a chance to strengthen our institutions, renew public trust and ensure that our democracy continues to grow with the people it serves.

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In a year’s time, voters across Wales will head to the polls to elect a new Senedd for the seventh time since devolution was first established over 25 years ago. However, this election promises to be unlike any other before it. Recent polling has showed that Welsh Labour’s political dominance could be ending abruptly as both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK have polled above the party.

However, the story of this election goes far beyond a close race to form the next government, as the Senedd will undergo a fundamental change to the way its structured and elected. But what are these changes and what does it mean for voters and the future of Welsh democracy?

A larger Senedd for a Growing Role

The most significant change is the increase in the number of Members of the Senedd (MSs), rising from 60 to 96. Since the start of devolution, the Senedd has gained far more responsibilities, as Westminster has devolved greater control over areas like tax raising powers, elections, and transport.

Despite this expansion of powers, the Senedd itself has until now remained the same size. As a result, MSs have been forced to cover an increasingly wide range of policy areas, stretching them thin and reducing their ability to scrutinise the government effectively. Numerous expert panels and commissions have called for more MSs to strengthen accountability, improve law-making, and – ironically – save taxpayers money by reducing policy mistakes and legislative backlogs.

A system that emphasises party control over democratic accountability

To facilitate this expansion, the electoral map is being redrawn. Wales will be divided into 16 new constituencies, each electing six MSs. These larger constituencies are based on pairs of Westminster seats and were decided by the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru.

The way people vote is changing too. Voters will no longer cast two votes as they did under the mixed-member system. Instead, each person will have a single vote, which they can use to support either a political party or an independent candidate.

Each party will submit a ranked list of candidates for each constituency. Seats will then be distributed based on the number of votes each party receives, using a proportional method known as the D’Hondt formula. This means that voters will not be choosing individual candidates – instead, they’ll be voting for a party, which has pre-determined which of its candidates takes the seats it wins.

We’re already seeing fierce internal contests within parties as candidates battle for the top spots on these lists. Incumbent MSs are going head-to-head with colleagues in private selection events and hustings.

This highlights the significant concentration of power within parties rather than at the ballot box. It’s party officials – not the public – who decide which candidates are most likely to be elected and the lack of transparency into these internal processes merely adds to the sense that voters are being frozen out of a key part of the democratic process.

Instead of spending their time engaging with the electorate, candidates are now incentivised to focus on internal party politics. Surely, democracy is about being held accountable by voters, not climbing the ranks of party machinery.

Lost Opportunity for Gender Equality

One of the key justifications for adopting this new voting system was the inclusion of gender quotas. Under the original proposals, 50% of candidates on each party list would be women – an ambitious but achievable goal aimed at restoring gender balance in the Senedd.

Wales once led the world in this area, becoming the first legislature to achieve gender parity in 2003. But that ambition has since been watered down. In September last year, the Welsh Government dropped the gender quota bill and replaced it with guidance, risking a return to male-dominated politics and squandering a chance to rebuild Wales’s global reputation for equality.

A Defining Moment for Welsh Democracy

This election marks a turning point – not just in who governs Wales, but in how that governance works. The reforms offer an opportunity to create a more robust and effective Senedd. However, they also create issues around transparency and accountability and stop far short on measures to improve diversity.

Electoral reform is always an ongoing process and following the election, whoever is in government, must review the election and whether the system properly works for the people it serves – not just parties.

The Senedd hit the headlines back in 2003 when it became the first legislature in the world to reach 50:50 gender parity between men and women. It was a proud moment for our country and showed Wales leading the way in ensuring democratic institutions truly represent the people that they serve. However, now that legacy is under threat. Just over a year out from the next elections, the Senedd could once again make the news on its gender balance – but for all the wrong reasons. That is, unless political parties step up.

Earlier this week the Welsh Government published long awaited guidance around diversity, which includes a range of measures from gender quotas, diversity plans and the collection and publication of diversity data. Those of us with a long memory may recall some of this was part of a bill to introduce statutory gender quotas. That Bill was dropped in September, and in its place we now have this guidance.

The key difference here is that last year’s bill would have made gender quotas mandatory, while this new guidance leaves it up to political parties to decide whether or not to adopt these measures – meaning that some may choose to ignore them altogether. The risk here is that many will choose to do the latter.

The Senedd’s positive record on gender parity has historically been the result of parties voluntarily utilising measures like all women shortlists, zipping and the twinning of constituencies. All of which are strategies that basically ensure there’s a good number of female candidates in places where they are more likely to win seats. That is what led to the record breaking numbers we saw in 2003. But dig below the surface and the reality is that only a couple of parties have used measures like this, and by chance they have done well at Senedd elections, essentially inflating the success of voluntary positive action. 

The risk now is that few parties will introduce the measures recommended in the guidance, and with polls showing a real split in voter intention it is likely the next Senedd will be made up of more parties. As a result, if these polls bear fruit then this fragmentation could lead to a Welsh Parliament that is less representative of women than ever before. 

In addition to the measures on gender balance, the guidance also includes recommended provisions to improve broader diversity in the Senedd. Suggesting parties measure and publish data around the diversity of their candidates, and take diversity and inclusion seriously through a specific strategy. This is absolutely where parties can do better, particularly around ethnicity and the representation of disabled people. Currently, 5% of MSs come from an ethnic minority background, slightly lower than the Wales average, and there is no data around those who identify as disabled whatsoever. 

The reality is that grasping the nettle on measures like quotas, better data, and tackling the culture within parties to offer support to a more diverse range of candidates will benefit us all. Apart from 2003 in Wales, women have been underrepresented in every other previous parliament across the UK. We know that having diverse and equal representation leads to better decision making. Wales is a diverse country and studies show that political institutions with gender parity can be viewed as more legitimate, with their decisions seen to be fairer. In short, those sitting in the Senedd Siambr (debating chamber) should truly reflect the broad life experiences and perspectives of all people in Wales.

With this guidance published, the responsibility is now squarely on political parties to step up and ensure Wales doesn’t squander its world-leading legacy when it comes to gender balance in its parliament. They must take on this responsibility, commit to introducing these measures to ensure that equal representation is a basic requirement of our democracy rather than just another missed opportunity.

This article was first published in Nation.Cymru

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Last weekend, Plaid Cymru members gathered in Llandudno for their Spring Conference as they begin to set their sights on the 2026 Senedd election. As part of the event, ERS Cymru Director, Jess Blair, hosted a conversation with Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun Ap Iorwerth MS, to discuss the state of democracy – both in Wales and globally – the upcoming electoral changes, and Plaid Cymru’s vision for Welsh democracy.

The conversation began with a discussion on the growing threats to democracy worldwide, from social media disinformation to AI and the erosion of democratic norms. Rhun expressed concern over the rapid pace of these changes, warning that Wales is not immune to these threats despite some of them coming from overseas, saying:

“[Elon Musk] won’t know that there’s an election in Wales, but his algorithms will” – a stark statement that brings these threats into sharp focus. 

Bringing the discussion closer to home, Jess highlighted Wales’ consistently lower voter turnout compared to the UK average. Rhun said this was deeply troubling – especially for a nation with such a rich democratic history, such as the Chartist movement in the 1800s.

He suggested that a major driver of this apathy could be the uncompetitive nature of Welsh elections. “It’s not normal for one party to win every election,” he said, arguing that real democracy thrives on competition and accountability. For him, a government – whether led by Plaid Cymru or any other political party – should expect to be challenged at the ballot box.

The 2026 elections and the closed-list system

With the 2026 Senedd election bringing significant electoral reforms, the discussion turned to what this means for Welsh voters. Jess pointed out that explaining these changes will be crucial, as confusion could further disengage voters.

Rhun acknowledged this and emphasized that the shift is a step toward a fairer system. The removal of what he called Labour’s ‘in-built bias’ could, he argued, help restore faith in Welsh democracy.

Whilst acknowledging the proportionality of the new system, he did concede that the new closed-list system was not Plaid Cymru’s first choice, but a compromise was needed. That said, he thinks that the post-election review system – where the effectiveness of the election will come under scrutiny – could be used as a mechanism to instigate further change, saying:

“There is going to be a review. The review is built into the legislation that enacted this change in the first place, and we want to use that review.” 

As part of the justification of choosing this closed-list system, gender quotas were proposed so that parties would be forced to have 50% of their list candidates as women. However, this plan was dropped by the Welsh Government in September last year, instead being replaced by voluntary guidance. 

When asked about Plaid Cymru’s stance on this, Rhun praised Welsh Labour’s early efforts but stressed that all parties now have a responsibility to act. “It’s absolutely up to us to reflect Wales in the best way possible,” he said, calling on parties to embrace the new guidance and ensure the Senedd is truly representative of society.

“There is always a cost to democracy”

In 2026 the Senedd will increase in size to 96 members. The debate around this expansion often circles back to cost, and, in the conversation, Rhun ap Iorwerth tackled this head-on. While acknowledging that increasing the number of politicians is rarely popular, he argued that Wales was ‘democratically being shortchanged’ compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland, arguing that there is always a ‘cost to democracy’.

To put this into perspective, he pointed out that refurbishing the Houses of Parliament in Westminster will cost around £20 billion which could pay for Wales’ democracy for over 1000 years.

While these numbers may seem big, he said, referring back to the cost of an enlarged Senedd, “This is the price we must pay to properly look after the people of Wales through our democracy.”

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Last week, the Senedd’s Standards of Conduct Committee published a report recommending the introduction of a recall procedure, allowing voters to remove and replace Members of the Senedd (MSs) who have seriously breached the Code of Conduct.

On the surface, this seems like a positive step. After all, there have been a number of cases where MSs have broken the rules without facing meaningful consequences. However, a closer look at the proposed process reveals a system that could undermine accountability rather than enhance it.

What is recall?

Recall is a mechanism which allows voters to remove politicians who have committed serious misconduct. Many will be familiar with recall from Westminster, where a procedure was introduced in 2015.

Under that system, MPs can face a recall petition for offences such as criminal convictions or fraudulent expenses claims. If a petition is triggered, constituents have six weeks to sign it. If 10% of them do, the MP is removed, and a by-election is held, giving voters the opportunity to elect a new representative.

At its core, recall is about accountability. Just as in any other job, if someone engages in misconduct, they should face consequences. Recall provides a democratic mechanism for this to happen.

Voters robbed of choice again

However, the Senedd’s proposed system differs significantly from the Westminster model. Under these proposals, an MS who has seriously breached standards would face a recall petition that voters would have just one day to sign. If a plurality of voters support the recall, the MS would be removed. However, instead of triggering a by-election, the vacated seat would simply be filled by the next candidate on the party’s list from the previous Senedd election – regardless of how long ago that election was.

This raises serious concerns about voter choice and accountability. In the Westminster system, recall petitions often lead to by-elections where voters can express their dissatisfaction not just with an individual but with their party as well. In three out of the four by-elections triggered by recall petitions in the 2019-24 parliament, the incumbent party lost the seat. This demonstrates that voters can hold the party accountable for its representative’s misconduct, not just the individual member.

Under the Senedd’s proposed system, voters would be denied this opportunity. Instead, the same party would automatically retain the seat, regardless of how the electorate feels about its role in the MSs conduct. This could allow parties to shield themselves from the electoral consequences of their MSs’ behaviour. Just as the soon to be introduced closed-lists stystem concentrates power in the hands of political parties and takes choice away from voters, this recall system would do the same.

The principle behind recall is sound: voters should have the power to remove politicians who fail to uphold ethical standards. However, if recall is to be introduced in Wales, it must be done properly. That means ensuring that voters—not political parties—determine who represents them after a recall. Otherwise, this system risks becoming yet another mechanism that prioritises party interests over public accountability.

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Back at Welsh Labour party conference in November, ERS Cymru hosted an ‘in conversation’ with Mark Drakeford MS where he reflected on the past, the present and the future of Welsh democracy.

In a wide ranging discussion, the former Welsh First Minister and current Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Welsh language, shared his views on a number of key reforms in Wales. This included his take on the earlier days of devolution, what needs to change to see Councils in Wales move to STV, Senedd reform and the House of Lords.

We are delighted that the Hiraeth podcast has published a recording of this event, which can be listened to below.

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The latest Barn Cymru poll released earlier in December by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre suggests that Plaid Cymru could be the largest party in the Senedd come 2026. The poll put Plaid on 24 percent of the vote, ahead of Labour and Reform UK who both were on 23 percent, and the Conservatives on 19 percent.

At Plaid Cymru’s autumn conference back in October ERS Cymru held a fringe event asking “Where next for Welsh democracy?”. Baroness Smith of Llanfaes, member of the House of Lords; Heledd Fychan MS, Member of the Senedd for South Wales Central and Member of the Reform Bill Committee; and Councillor Elin Hywel, Cyngor Gwynedd (Gwynedd County Council), gathered to share their thoughts on the topic with Jess Blair, ERS Cymru Director chairing the discussion.

House of Lords Reform

Baroness Smith described how her first 6 months in the House of Lords has only made her more certain that our completely unelected second chamber is entirely inappropriate. Advocating for a fully elected chamber and flagging how the demographic skew in the make-up of the Lords marks their debates, giving the example of the debate on VAT charges for private schools, where many lords stood up and spoke on behalf of the 3% of children who attend private schools in the UK, yet hardly any for the 97% in state schools.

Baroness Smith stated that the removal of hereditary peers is a good first step towards reforming the House of Lords, but there is plenty more to be done. She would like to see the Labour government implementing more of their plans on House of Lords reform alongside other democratic reforms at Westminster – as detailed in the Brown Commission report.

Senedd Reform

Over the last few years, Senedd reform has, quite rightly, dominated discussions in Cardiff Bay. As Plaid Cymru’s representative on the Reform Bill Committee, Heledd Fychan MS spoke of how needed these reforms are, especially around the increase in number of members to 96. Her experience as a Councillor on Rhondda Cynon Taf council (with 75 councillors) showed her how a larger Senedd could improve scrutiny and committee work – a vital part of holding the Welsh Government to account and ensuring the best policies and legislation for the people of Wales.

She spoke of how the system wasn’t perfect, for example with the closed list PR electoral system, and raised how there were areas where Plaid are very disappointed. In particular with the withdrawal of the Bill which would have introduced legislative gender quotas. However she stated that it was still a marked improvement on the current system. Increasing the number of politicians is never going to be a popular decision, Heledd emphasised the need to parties and MSs to make the positive case for Senedd reform to the public.

With all of the changes happening ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, Heledd stressed the importance of clear communication to the electorate. She highlighted that in 2021 the potential of 16 and 17 year olds getting to vote wasn’t realised and that it was up to parties to make sure that they are appealing to newly enfranchised voters.

STV for Local Government

The option for local governments to move to a Single Transferable Vote (STV) system for their elections came in with the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021. Cllr Elin Hywel spoke of how vital it was that councils start having this conversation about democracy at a local level and how everyone in the community can be represented. The positive response of local people to Cyngor Gwynedd’s consultation on the change (over 72% of respondents in favour) showed the level of support improving local democracy.

The barriers to councils in Wales making the move to STV include the permissive nature of the change, putting all of the pressure on individual councils and Elin highlighted the sense that they were “doing this on our own” and whether it was fair to be going forward alone. She also raised the big challenge of getting a 2/3rd majority of councillors to vote for the change (46 of the 75 councillors on Cyngor Gwynedd), not least because the previous council meeting only had 45 councillors attend. The legislation as written has no flexibility for if councillors are off on sickness leave, maternity, or if a seat isn’t currently filled. It requires 2/3rd of the total number of councillors to vote yes for the change to happen no matter the circumstances at that time.

Elin spoke of the legislation requiring councils to lead by example and be brave, two things which Gwynedd has a history of doing, and the need for conversations between councils to share experiences and talk about councillors’ fears around the unknown. She also called for the Welsh Government to provide more guidance and support for councils in making these decisions going forward.

Next Steps

Less than two weeks after our fringe event, Cyngor Gwynedd held their historic vote on changing their electoral system to STV. With few exceptions the level of debate was high, as was the number of contributions across the chamber. Unfortunately, the vote in Gwynedd was lost and while the majority of councillors, 45 of the 75, voted for a fairer way to elect the council, it fell just one short of the two-thirds needed.

It was clear from our fringe event that Plaid’s ambition is to improve democracy at all levels of government for Wales. Given the potential for Plaid to become the largest party in the Senedd at the 2026 elections this continued commitment to improving democracy is exciting. We will be working with all parties ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections to ensure that their manifestos commit to improving democracy across Wales.

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